Car theft by numbers: are you at risk?

• Car theft has far-reaching social and economic consequences, with billions in losses in 2017.
• Chevy and Ford trucks are common targets, but the Honda Accord remains the most stolen.
• We examine the data to help you understand car theft and provide ways to protect yourself.

With the advent of Ford's mechanical assembly line, the United States became a nation on wheels. As the automobile industry flourished, another automotive enterprise developed. Carjacking. Authors John A. Heitmann and Rebecca H. Morales in «Car Theft: Technology and Society from the Model T to the Gran Torino» show how early vehicles were easy to steal and hard to find. Since almost all cars of the time looked the same, it was quite difficult for law enforcement. While modern anti-theft technology can deter thieves, it is worth noting that nearly half of all stolen cars today have never been recovered.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration finds that a vehicle is stolen every 41 seconds in the U.S. today. Data from the National Insurance Crime Bureau (NICB) shows that car thefts in the US rose by more than four per cent last year, according to preliminary 2017 FBI crime data.

Perception vs. reality

Hollywood delighted the car thief, once in 1974 and then again in 2000 with Gone In 60 Seconds. The object of affection for both films is «Eleanor,» the elusive Ford Mustang. However, the reality is far less surprising than Randall «Memphis» Raines leaping over the horizon in the iconic pony car. According to a recent study from Driving-Tests.org, nearly $6 billion was lost due to car theft in 2017, an average of $7,708 per stolen car.

«For individuals and families, it's a heavy financial burden,» said Mel Kasoulis of Driving-Tests.org's creative team and the study's project manager. «It can also have an economic impact on society as a whole: higher crime rates in communities, higher insurance rates and the financial impact on businesses when employees can't get to work.».

«Chop shops» are a common place for stolen cars to be disassembled and sold for parts. NHTSA says doors, engines, transmissions and airbags are among the most sought-after and profitable components. The NICB says expensive parts are a factor in car theft, as criminals steal cars to strip them of components and then sell them on the black market. Those who want to steal a car for parts will look accordingly.

«It's usually easy to break a car or truck down for parts,» said First Lieutenant Michael Shaw, public information officer for the Michigan State Police Second District. «The easier it is to sell the parts, the more often the vehicle is stolen.».

By the numbers

The team at Driving-Tests.org used FBI crime reporting data from 2016 and 2017 to find the number of thefts nationwide; balancing this with data from the NICB. Driving-Tests.org looked at population and vehicle registration data by state to determine the number of stolen vehicles per 1,000 registered vehicles and 100,000 residents by state. Finally, the team calculated the average loss per vehicle by state using data from the Insurance Information Institute.

«This project was inspired by our personal incidents of carjacking,» Kasoulis said. «It got us thinking about trends in these crimes; which vehicles are most vulnerable and which cities and states are most affected.».

Chevy / Ford Trucks Honda vehicles, most targeted

According to a study on Driving-Tests.org, Chevy and Ford trucks are most often stolen in Southern and Midwestern states. In comparison, the Honda Accord is most stolen in states such as New York, Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Overall, the Honda Accord remains the most stolen car according to federal agencies such as the NHTSA. Given that cars like the Accord, as well as Chevy and Ford trucks, are the top sellers, Kasulis believes they are more at risk.

«More popular cars are more likely to be lost in a crowded car park, which entails more discreet theft,» she said.

More than 45,000 Honda Civics and nearly 44,000 Accords were stolen in 2017, according to the NICB's 2017 Hot Wheels report released in September. Some Honda outlets even offer tips on how to prevent theft for Accord owners. The same report found that more than 35,000 Ford trucks were stolen in 2017, compared to 30,000 Chevy trucks. The NICB says vehicles without modern anti-theft technology are especially at risk.

«While our data doesn't say it specifically, many of the most stolen cars are models that predate smart key« technology »and extensive anti-theft systems,» Kasulis explained. «Investing in a vehicle with anti-theft systems plays a big role in preventing theft.».

The last frontier is the first

In its study, Driving-Tests.org says the top 10 places for stolen cars are Alaska, New Mexico, Washington, D.C., Nevada, Colorado, Colorado, Oregon, California, Oklahoma and Washington. In contrast, Vermont, Delaware, North Dakota and South Dakota were among the states with the largest declines in auto thefts. According to a study by Driving-Tests.org, about 22 cars per 1,000 registered vehicles are stolen in Alaska. Between 2016 and 2017 alone, car theft in Alaska jumped nearly 40 percent. According to the Anchorage Police Department, 3,122 vehicles were stolen in 2017, but that number is declining.

During a press conference earlier this year, reported by Zachariah Hughes of Alaska Media, the Anchorage Police Department said thefts are down 60 per cent. Officials described theft as a random crime, often motivated by habitual drug use. Vehicles left in cold weather are particularly susceptible to theft.

«It's a drive through town to buy more drugs or to commit other crimes,» Lt. Jared Tuija of the Anchorage Police Department said at a news conference. «And often they're selling vehicles among other users.».

Shaw agrees with this assessment.

«Like many crimes, car theft is motivated by money: some people need money for drugs and others just need a cash period,» he said. «In other cases, it's just opportunity. Someone leaves a car running or unlocked, and someone takes advantage of that.».

Kasoulis also agrees, but says there are other major issues to consider.

«While we can only speculate, we know that there is not just one factor that can be cited as the cause,» she explained. «Epidemic epidemics, economic downturns and high unemployment rates have previously been considered as contributing factors to high auto theft in Alaska.».

Don't leave your keys (or your valuables) behind

According to the latest NICB data, an average of 209 cars were stolen every day between 1 January 2016 and 31 December 2018. Why? Because drivers left their keys or fobs in their vehicles. During that three-year period, 229,339 vehicles were stolen this way, a 56 percent increase from 2015. The five states with the highest number of thefts of this type during this period were California (31,185); Florida (17,300); Texas (15,511); Ohio (12,596) and Nevada (11,391).

«We can't stress enough the importance of locking your vehicle and taking your key or fob with you when you leave it,» said Joe Wehrle, NICB president and CEO. «Anti-theft technology works, but only if you use it.».

Shaw says a thief will look for the path of least resistance; the sense of the circumstances of the moment can determine the outcome. For example, a locked car with a state-of-the-art security system in a well-lit area, as opposed to one left running and/or parked in a dark place.

«I think we all know which car is going to be stolen,» Shaw said.

Sometimes a thief isn't looking for your car, just the stuff inside. According to the NHTSA, radios, GPS devices, mobile phones, iPads, laptops and wallets are some of the most commonly stolen items. The Anchorage Police Department's «Lock, Remove and Conceal» approach should be followed if you are travelling with valuable items. Many crossovers and SUVs today offer protective covers for the back of the luggage compartment, and while they help, it's still best to follow outside advice.

«Lock your vehicle, as most crime is an opportunity,» Shaw continued. «And don't leave it running even for a second.».

Be careful Protect yourself

The NICB encourages everyone to use these «layers of protection» when it comes to preventing car theft. The list includes relatively simple things to remember, such as parking your car in a well-lit area, using your garage and not leaving valuables behind. Other tips include investing in alarms, wheel locks, steering columns and tracking systems. If someone has stolen your car, contact your local police station and your insurer as soon as possible.

Finally, the Michigan State Police advise that you should never confront a thief.

«The most important thing is if someone approaches you with a gun and wants your car,» Shaw said. «It's just metal and not worth your life.».

Carl Anthony studies mechanical engineering at Wayne State University, serves on the board of directors of the Ellie Jolie Baldwin Foundation, and is a dedicated Detroit Lions fan. Before returning to school, he simultaneously held product development and marketing experience positions in the automotive industry.

Additional resources

How to prevent your car from being stolen: via Geico.

18 things car thieves won't tell you: via Reader's Digest.

The best anti-theft devices to keep your car safe: via digital trends.

Prevention of vehicle theft: through the National Road Safety Authority.

Sources: Alaska Public Media, Anchorage Police Department, Driving-Tests.org, Michigan State Police, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, National Insurance Crime Bureau.